# Will Bitcoin break down or run to $97K next?

Bitcoin held $81,000 after a flush to $79,750. The levels that decide the next move: $87,200 upside trigger, $97K confluence, $75,500 and $67,000 buy zones.

Source: https://guhov.top/will-bitcoin-break-down/ · based on the channel [Gareth Soloway](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwTu6kD2igaLMpxswtcdxlg) · Video: [Bitcoin Came THIS Close to Breaking Down: $97K Next?](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5p7VdWDV-E) · 2026-10-20

![Will Bitcoin break down or run to $97K next?](https://guhov.top/will-bitcoin-break-down/will-bitcoin-break-down.webp)

## Key takeaways

- Bitcoin flushed to roughly $79,750 before closing back above the $81,000 support line.
- A daily close above $87,200 activates an upside confluence at $95,000–$97,000 from a rising trend line, a measured move and prior pivot highs.
- A daily close below $81,000 opens $75,500, where the plan is to buy only 25% of the intended position.
- The remaining size is reserved for the $67,000 zone, with the cycle low treated as intact until proven otherwise.
- Ethereum has a heavy buy zone just below $2,000 and a $2,800 retest on a breakout; HBAR was a swing trade back to the scene of the crime with a target near $0.10.

Bitcoin came within a few hundred dollars of a major technical breakdown, flushed to about $79,750, then closed back above its $81,000 support — so the bullish structure survived, but the market is still boxed inside a roughly $6,000 range and no swing position is justified until one of two lines breaks. The two lines that matter are $81,000 on the downside and $87,200 on the upside, and the same chart work is available to anyone opening an account through the [Coinbase tier-one fee signup](https://coinbase.com/aff/verifiedinvesting) that Gareth Soloway uses for his own crypto money.

## Why the $79,750 flush did not break Bitcoin

The flush to roughly $79,750 was a test, not a breakdown, because Bitcoin closed the session back above the $81,000 shelf that has now been hammered repeatedly. That shelf is the line that separates a range from a trend reversal: as long as daily closes stay above it, the higher-low structure from the cycle low remains valid and the tape is still consolidating rather than distributing.

The relative strength is the more interesting signal. Bitcoin has been hanging in there while the AI trade and the Nasdaq slide, which is unusual — crypto has spent most of its history trading as a high-beta proxy for risk appetite, so holding a support level during an equity drawdown suggests supply is being absorbed rather than dumped. That does not make Bitcoin bullish by itself, but it removes the strongest argument for an imminent breakdown.

## The two levels that decide the next move

Everything in the near term reduces to a binary set of triggers, and until one of them prints, the correct posture is no swing position at all — no long, no short. Sitting inside a $6,000 range means the reward-to-risk on either side is poor, and the middle of a range is where accounts get chopped up.

1. **Upside trigger: $87,200.** A daily close above this level is what activates the bullish case and the confluence targets above it.
2. **Downside trigger: $81,000.** A daily close below this level invalidates the support shelf and opens the first buy zone at $75,500.
3. **In between: nothing.** Between the two lines, the market is offering noise, not a setup.

The discipline here is mechanical rather than predictive: define the levels, wait for the close, then act. A close is used rather than an intraday wick precisely because the $79,750 flush showed how far a wick can travel without changing the structure.

## Three factors stacking at $95,000 to $97,000

Above $87,200, three independent pieces of chart work converge in the $95,000–$97,000 area, which is why that zone is treated as the realistic upside objective rather than a round-number guess.

- **Rising trend line.** A trend line drawn off the consolidation lows reaches roughly the $91,000 area first and keeps climbing, which is why the same target can stay valid into late November — the line rises into the price rather than the price chasing a fixed number.
- **Measured move.** Projecting the height of the consolidation out of the range produces a target in the $96,000–$97,000 region, a standard technique for estimating how far a breakout can travel once a range resolves.
- **Prior pivot highs.** The old swing highs sit right in that same band, and prior pivots are where resting sell orders and trapped shorts tend to cluster.

Three methods pointing at one price band is the definition of confluence, and confluence zones are where a breakout trade can be sized with a defined invalidation instead of hope.

## The bear case: $75,500 first, then $67,000

A daily close below $81,000 changes the plan from waiting to accumulating, but in stages rather than in one click. The first level is $75,500, and the stated approach there is to buy only 25% of the intended position — a partial entry that keeps most of the capital dry if the level fails.

The rest is reserved for the $67,000 zone, where the full remaining size would be deployed. That two-step structure exists because a support break often produces a fast flush through the first obvious level; buying 25% at $75,500 keeps a trader involved if the market turns immediately, while the $67,000 allocation assumes the deeper flush that typically follows a failed shelf.

The cycle low is treated as intact until proven otherwise. That is a working assumption, not a certainty — the proof would be price action that invalidates the higher-low structure, and until that happens the bias on any deep flush is to buy rather than to chase a breakdown.

## Ethereum and HBAR: the altcoin setups

Ethereum is in its own range with two clean reference points: a heavy buy zone just below $2,000 and a $2,800 retest on a breakout. The sub-$2,000 area is where demand previously appeared, which makes it the logical place to scale in rather than the middle of the range; the $2,800 level is the prior structure that has to be reclaimed before the breakout case has any weight.

HBAR was handled as a swing trade rather than an investment: an entry on a retrace back to the scene of the crime — the level where the previous move originated — with a target near $0.10. The pattern is the same one applied to Bitcoin: wait for price to return to the level that started the move, define the target in advance, and let the level do the work.

## What traders actually ask about this setup

The recurring doubts from viewers are less about direction and more about execution, and most of them have concrete answers.

- **"No Bitcoin position at all?"** Yes — inside a $6,000 range the edge is too thin, so the position is zero until $81,000 or $87,200 is settled on a daily close.
- **"How do you short on Coinbase?"** Spot platforms are built for buying and selling spot, not for leveraged shorts; traders who want downside exposure typically use derivatives venues or simply hold stablecoins and wait for the buy zones.
- **"Can I still use the referral if I already have an account?"** Accounts that have been idle for 30 days qualify, and so do users who originally signed up under someone else's link.
- **"Isn't emotional trading the real problem?"** It is, and the fix is a written game plan with pre-set levels — the reason the $75,500 and $67,000 buys are sized in advance is so that fear and greed never get a vote during the flush.

## The game plan is the edge

A trader without a written plan gets whipsawed, because every move inside a range feels like the start of a trend and every wick feels like a breakdown. The alternative is a page with four numbers on it: $81,000, $87,200, $75,500 and $67,000, each with a defined action and a defined size.

That is the whole method — the levels are public, the confluence is visible on any chart, and the only variable a trader controls is whether the plan exists before the candle prints. Emotion enters exactly where preparation stops.

## Useful links

- [Coinbase tier-one fee pricing via Verified Investing](https://coinbase.com/aff/verifiedinvesting) — sign up through the link or QR code to cut trading fees; idle accounts (30+ days) and users who joined under another link also qualify.
- https://www.VerifiedInvesting.com — the research site behind the chart breakdowns.

## Bottom line

Bitcoin survived a flush to roughly $79,750 and closed back above $81,000, so the bullish structure is still intact and the next decision belongs to two daily closes: above $87,200 toward a $95,000–$97,000 confluence, or below $81,000 toward staged buys at $75,500 and $67,000. No swing position makes sense inside the range, and the cycle low stays valid until the market proves otherwise. Ethereum's plan is a heavy buy zone just below $2,000 with a $2,800 retest on a breakout, while HBAR was a retrace swing trade targeting near $0.10. This breakdown comes from Gareth Soloway's channel, where the same levels are walked through on live charts each week. If you want tier-one fees while you trade those levels, [open the account through this link](https://coinbase.com/aff/verifiedinvesting) before the next daily close.

## Questions & answers

**What are the key Bitcoin levels to watch right now?**

The two decisive lines are $81,000 on the downside and $87,200 on the upside, both judged on daily closes rather than intraday wicks. A close above $87,200 activates the $95,000–$97,000 confluence, while a close below $81,000 opens the $75,500 buy zone. Between those lines Bitcoin is inside a roughly $6,000 range with no clear edge.

**Why is there no Bitcoin position while price sits in the range?**

Because the middle of a range offers poor reward-to-risk in both directions, and a $6,000 box produces constant false starts. The plan is to wait for a daily close at one of the two boundaries and then act with a defined invalidation. Holding nothing is a position, and in this case it is the deliberate one.

**How should a trader size buys at $75,500 and $67,000?**

The approach is staged: only 25% of the intended position at $75,500, with the remaining size reserved for the $67,000 zone. That split keeps capital available if the first support fails and price flushes deeper, which is common after a shelf breaks. Sizing is decided in advance so emotion does not set it during the drop.

**Does an existing or idle Coinbase account still qualify for the fee offer?**

Accounts that have been idle for 30 days qualify, and so do users who originally signed up under someone else's referral link. The offer is tier-one fee pricing rather than a trading bonus, and it is managed by the exchange under its own terms. Signing up through the link before trading the levels above is the simplest way to capture it.